55% of all Metro Vancouver homes projected to be condos by 2051
The latest update reflects a 1.4 per cent average annual growth rate in housing units, a slight dip from 1.5 per cent last year, largely linked to reduced federal immigration targets over the next few years.
Housing starts are expected to fluctuate in the short term. After a projected record 3.7 per cent growth surge in 2025, expansion is anticipated to cool to 0.9 per cent in 2026 before climbing again to 2.6 per cent by 2030, depending on federal immigration policy adjustments. Long-term growth, however, is projected to stabilize along historical trends.
Densification continues to shape the region’s housing future. The report finds 67 per cent of all new homes built between now and 2051 will be condominiums, up from 61 per cent between 2016 and 2021.
The total number of condominium homes will climb from 536,202 in 2024 to 946,476 by 2051. Multiplex homes (duplexes and triplexes) will rise from 18 per cent (211,993 units) to 20 per cent (341,883 units) of the mix, while rowhomes will edge up modestly from 10 per cent (119,522 units) to 11 per cent (187,855 units).
With the redevelopment of the region’s low-density neighbourhoods into higher-density forms, single-family detached homes will fall sharply in share, from 26 per cent of the housing mix today to just 14 per cent by 2051.
Housing growth forecast, 2051. (Metro Vancouver Regional District)
Housing growth forecast, 2051. (Metro Vancouver Regional District)
While growth is occurring region-wide, Surrey and Vancouver will continue to absorb nearly half of all new housing.
Under the medium growth scenario, Surrey will capture 25 per cent of Metro Vancouver’s new homes, growing at an annual rate of 1.9 per cent. Vancouver will add 21 per cent of new homes, with annual growth of 1.1 per cent.
The Township of Langley, City of Langley, Coquitlam, New Westminster, and Maple Ridge are also expected to post above-average growth, exceeding 1.5 per cent annually.
Between 2016 and 2021, the Township of Langley, City of North Vancouver, and New Westminster recorded some of the highest rates of housing growth in the region. That trend is expected to continue as suburban municipalities accommodate more multi-family housing.
Moreover, guided by provincial legislation, Metro Vancouver’s municipal governments have adopted transit-oriented development policies that catalyze higher densities near major public transit hubs, particularly at SkyTrain stations, as well as policies that enable multiplexes in traditional single-family neighbourhoods. The regional district’s report warns that the projection does not yet fully account for new provincial housing legislation and associated targets, which could shift growth patterns further.
Long-term future skyline of Surrey City Centre. (Invest Surrey/Downtown Surrey BIA)
While immigration policy changes are introducing short-term volatility — particularly between 2025 and 2027 — the regional district’s planners say annual model updates are essential to keeping pace with shifting demographic, policy, and economic conditions.
“These fluctuations underscore the importance of regular updates to Metro Vancouver’s projections, particularly in response to evolving federal policy,” the report states.
The regional forecast paints a clear picture: Metro Vancouver is building upward, not outward. Condominiums will soon dominate the skyline and the housing market, reshaping communities, infrastructure, and household composition for decades to come.
Compared to other major metropolitan regions in Canada and the United States, there is very limited ability for outward, sprawling, low-density urban growth in Metro Vancouver, with the region constrained by mountains to the north, the Fraser Valley and mountains to the east, the U.S. border to the south, and the Strait of Georgia to the west.
As reported by Daily Hive Urbanized over the years, Metro Vancouver, encompassing 21 municipal governments, has a total land area of only about 2,880 sq. km., which is just 40 per cent the size of Greater Toronto (7,125 sq. km.), 68 per cent of Greater Montreal (4,258 sq. km.), 19 per cent of Greater Seattle (15,200 sq. km.), 56 per cent of Greater Calgary (5,100 sq. km.), 31 per cent of Greater Edmonton (9,415 sq. km.), and 36 per cent of Greater Ottawa (8,050 sq. km.). All the while, Metro Vancouver is Canada’s third most populated metropolitan region.
The combined urban, industrial, and mixed-use employment areas of Metro Vancouver total about 840 sq. km. — areas that are inside the urban containment boundary, where residential uses can occur. This is not much bigger than the entire City of Toronto’s land area of 631 sq. km.
As regional planners brace for another 553,000 homes in the coming generation, the question is no longer whether density is coming — but how the region manages it.
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