Slower population growth now forecast for Metro Vancouver, reaching 4.2 million in 2051

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Metro Vancouver's population climbs to over three million residents

British Columbia's population to reach nearly 8 million by 2046: forecast

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Under the newly updated low-growth scenario, Metro Vancouver would see its population rise to 3.339 million by 2031, 3.63 million by 2041, and 3.88 million by 2051. For the new high-growth scenario, this region would be home to 3.408 million residents by 2031, 3.925 million by 2041, and 4.45 million by 2051.

The low-growth scenario assumes lower immigration and fertility rates, while the high-growth scenario assumes higher immigration and fertility rates. Higher immigration rates are also associated with a greater proportion of children and younger families.

One of the main differences in the growth forecast compared to the previous estimates conducted in late 2024 is the expected change from 2025 to 2027, which will now be notably temporarily slower due to the federal government’s reduced immigration targets, fewer non-permanent residents, and new data inputs from Statistics Canada’s latest population estimates.

Currently, more stable population growth is expected to return before the end of this decade, but that could still fluctuate for a myriad of reasons. This translates into projections of a regional population growth decline of 0.6 per cent in 2026, before rebounding to an increase of about one per cent per year. Over the long term, the growth is expected to reach an average of about 1.5 per cent, returning to more historic levels.

“Metro Vancouver’s population projections are developed using a hybrid top-down and bottom-up approach. This means that, in addition to analyzing the broader factors that drive growth, such as migration trends and demographic shifts, the projections also incorporate regional land capacity and select approved development plans to reflect local planning realities,” reads the regional district’s report, noting that it uses a widely accepted method called Cohort Component Population Projection Model.

Under the medium-growth scenario, immigration will represent 90 per cent of Metro Vancouver’s population growth through the early 2050s.

Net interprovincial migration — people moving to Metro Vancouver from other parts of Canada outside of British Columbia — will remain relatively constant, but historically, this factor has accounted for only a small portion of overall population growth. Similarly, interprovincial migration — people moving to Metro Vancouver from other areas of B.C. — will also follow the historic trend. As well, the 30-year annual average of out-migration from the region to other areas of B.C. represents approximately one-third of the annual inflow of new immigrants.

Unsurprisingly, similar to many jurisdictions elsewhere in the country and the world, natural population growth in Metro Vancouver from fertility is projected to continue to decline, turning negative by 2036 as deaths outnumber births.

While natural increase from births accounts for nearly nine per cent of population growth from 2024 to 2025, it is expected to subtract from growth by 2051 to 2052 due to an aging population. By 2051, the working-age group (ages 18 to 64) will reach 2.8 million, but the share of children will fall from 12 per cent in 2024 to 10 per cent. Seniors, meanwhile, will grow from 16 per cent of the population in 2024 to 21 per cent by 2051.

As for which areas of Metro Vancouver will absorb most of the population growth, this will continue to be the City of Vancouver and the City of Surrey.

Under the medium-growth scenario, Vancouver’s population will rise from 758,000 in 2024 to 805,000 in 2031, 878,000 in 2041, and 953,000 in 2051, while Surrey’s population will increase from 701,000 in 2024 to 771,000 in 2031, 896,000 in 2041, and 1.005 million in 2051. Furthermore, it is now forecast that Surrey’s population will surpass Vancouver’s in 2038, becoming the most populated city in B.C.

The regional district periodically updates its population growth forecast to assist the regional district, municipal governments, and TransLink in planning for housing, infrastructure, utilities, and services.

Baseline forecast: Medium-growth scenario

Alternate forecast: Low-growth scenario

Alternate forecast: High-growth scenario

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